Introduction
The GLA 2024-based population projections were published in August 2026.
The projections are based on population estimates data up to mid-2024. They were produced without reference to the 2025 mid-year population estimates published by ONS in July 2026, which showed a fall in London’s population from the previous year.
The projections incorporate the results of the 2026 London Strategic Housing Land Availability Assessment (SHLAA), the first major update to the housing assumptions used in the projections since 2017.
The GLA produces both trend-based and housing-led population projections.
Trend-based projections are typically most useful for understanding demographic change at larger scales and allow for comparison of trends in London with those in other regions or England as a whole.
Housing-led projections are recommended for applications where the focus is on population change within London as they are available for small areas and capture the potential impacts of housing on the spatial distribution of population.
Multiple variants of the projections have been produced based on different scenarios of future fertility, mortality and migration patterns. These include a set of core variants, intended to cover a range of potential outcomes that provide a useful basis for planning and policymaking.
This site provides an overview of the results of the core variants for London. This is broken into separate sections for population and components of change, and trend-based and housing-led.
A further section provides a comparison of the results of the two projection types, including a map showing the differences in the spatial distribution of population.
An explanation of the different projection types, the methods used to produce them, and the scenarios used is provided in Overview of the projections.
Two further sections provide an overview of the data used in the production of the projections, including a breakdown of assumed housing development by local authority and component.
The GLA regularly updates its projections as new data become available. 2025-based projections are provisionally scheduled for publication early in 2027.
Key results
The population of London is projected to grow
From 9.13 million in 2024, to:
9.51 million to 9.88 million by 2036 (annualised growth 32k to 62k), and
9.76 million to 10.77 million by 2051 (annualised growth 21k to 61k)
This compares to past annualised growth of 51k between 2016 and 2024, and 114k between 2006 and 2016
Projected change varies greatly between age groups:
- The number of Londoners aged 65 and over is projected to increase by more than 55 percent in all variants.
- The number of school-age children is projected to decrease over the next decade in all variants. In the longer term, projected numbers span a wide range, reflecting the inherent uncertainty in future fertility rate trends.
- The median age of London's population is projected to rise from 34.9 years to 38.6 to 39.6 years by 2051. However, it is set to remain significantly younger than that of the rest of the country.
Natural change (births minus deaths) is not projected to return to past levels
- Annual deaths are projected to increase as the population ages
In the most optimistic scenarios, natural change plateaus at 2024 levels (+55k per year). This is already 30k below the peak in 2011.
In all other variants natural change declines - falling as low as 19k in the most pessimistic scenarios.
Impacts of housing assumptions
Accounting to housing delivery in line with capacity identified in the SHLAA results in higher absolute population growth
Projected growth in the housing-led projections is up to 280k higher than in the equivalent trend-based variants.
These differences depend on highly uncertain assumptions about relative levels of future housing delivery in London and the wider region and should be interpreted with caution.
The more significant impacts of including housing are seen in the projected distribution of population within London.
future growth is concentrated in areas with large amounts of identified capacity, with the population of some existing wards projected to more than double.
In areas with limited capacity and ageing populations, the number of residents is projected to gradually decline over coming decades.
Accessing the projections
The projections are available to download from the London Datastore:
Household projections consistent with the trend-based population projections
The London Population Projections Explorer provides a simple interface to allow users to visualise the results of the housing-led projections and to create custom charts and data extracts.
Updates to the projections and reporting
It is recommended that users of the projections periodically check the London Datastore for updates, additions, and corrections to the outputs. We may produce additional variants over time to meet specific user needs.
Likewise, both this site and the Population Projections Explorer tool may receive updates and improvements over time.
We welcome feedback from users as we work to make the outputs of the projections as accessible and useful as possible.
For more information please contact the GLA's City Intelligence Demography Team at [email protected]
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